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THE MARCUS TODAY MORNING MEETING – Monday 6th June

June 06, 2022 Marcus Today
Marcus Today Free Podcast
THE MARCUS TODAY MORNING MEETING – Monday 6th June
Show Notes Transcript

Anyone who has been in broking will tell you that the Morning Meeting is how all brokers start the day.  The format is to have a quick look at the overnight markets, consider what's coming up in the day ahead, hear from the analysts, share ideas and get set up for the day's stock market activity

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*PLEASE NOTE: Transcripts are autogenerated and may contain errors, especially Stock Codes and Names.

SPEAKERS

Tom Wegner, Chris Conway, Ben O'Leary, Henry Jennings, TEAM

 

Ben O'Leary  00:00

Good morning everyone, it is Monday the sixth of June start of another big wake Henry are not for us. Good morning. What have you got?

 

Henry Jennings  00:21

Good morning, Ben. Well, overnight on Friday a little bit of a lacklustre session on the Dow we have the US market down 349 points just over 1% On the back of the jobs number that came out which was slightly better than anticipated. They also upgraded the April number as well. The jobs number came in at 390,000 in May unemployment rate headline at 3.6%. So that does intimate that maybe the Fed has to go a little bit harder on rates so that was enough to upset the doubt and Elon Musk managed to upset the NASDAQ with his comments about he had a bad feeling about the economy and NASDAQ was down two and a half percent LME still closed for jubilee celebrations for the queen and we did see oil pushing a little bit higher as well. We had Brent crude at 1.8% Gold off 1.1% iron ore a smidge higher our market of course is just waiting bated breath for the RBA tomorrow so that's the focus today. That's very much the focus the market cautionary start.

 

Ben O'Leary  01:19

Very nice. Thank you, Henry. I enjoyed the Paddington Bear Queen Jubilee ad. I don't know if anyone saw that. That's what 

 

Henry Jennings  01:26

It was good, wasn't it? 

 

Ben O'Leary  01:27

Yeah, very wholesome. Tom, check that out and what's happening today?

 

Tom Wegner  01:29

Thank you, Ben. Now I didn't catch there but the ASX 200 is having a soft start to the week down 27 points in line with what the future's had suggested, as Henry pointed out caution creeping in a bit ahead of the RBA decision tomorrow. We have ECB decision on Thursday and the US inflation data on Friday so those will all be keenly watched and could at some volatility we'll have to wait and see energy and healthcare names are outperforming most sectors are in negative territory tech and property names the worst performers we have the SX June quarter rebalance announced so you can see all of the ins and outs in the markets today section line town resources ltr is sliding almost 3% after executing its offtake deal with Tesla Magellan sliding more than 5% with its funds under management still bleeding. They were also removed from the ASX 100 index champion on and Intertek pivot CIA and IPL the codes for those two both slipping as they trade ex dividend and Domino's Pizza, DMP down. 1.5% has an investor today.

 

Ben O'Leary  02:38

Very nice, thank you Tom. Layton, not with us again. Today. He'll be back later in the wakestyle cover off broker stuff for him this morning. Just a couple of little bits first one is Transurban TCL downgraded by Credit Suisse moving from an app on to a neutral rating on a valuation issue after a strong run for the stock. This is despite acknowledging that the toll roads may be considered an inflation hedge fund we're in an inflationary period at the moment. They also noted that while rates have been hedged in terms of their debt, and the average cost of their Australian debt is 4%. That is likely to increase when it is eventually refinanced. They've lowered their target price $1 to 1360, which is around 7% below the current price. And the other one I noted this morning was Helius which is the ticker HL s there have been a few drops in Target prices after a disappointing trading update from the company Credit Suisse Macquarie and Morgan's have also revised down their earnings estimates Credit Suisse have dropped their target price 10% Morgan's have dropped at around 17%. But they still both maintain upside to their target prices of around 10% on the current share price, so they just bring it back on a long way above the share price to a little bit closer mCherry I've moved there's a little bit lower one or 2% as well, but it still sits around 30% above the current prices are definitely still bullish on Helius. There is the takeaway, and that's all from broker stuff. Chris, what have you got in trading this morning?

 

Chris Conway  04:02

Thank you, Ben. First up, the current open positions are actually holding up relatively well today. Most of them as I've said previously are in the energy space. And of course oil prices were higher on Friday night Harry posing the question this morning in the discussion group How high will oil prices go obviously it's a particular relevance to the positions I hold hopefully a lot lot higher. But as I say they're all holding up pretty well as for today's chart of the day I am taking a look at Arica the first half results beat expectations helped by a 5% increase in explosives, volumes and morph margins contracted ever so slightly 13.1% debt at 12.9% Group earnings Rose 24% All of that positive sentiment is reflected in the chart which has been in a nice uptrend since the start of the year. It looks as though it will break higher and and again it is up today on a down day for the market. And then finally in my manic Monday section of the newsletters. I'm taking a look at a lot of the analyst downgrades that we have seen recently and of course a lot of people pay attention to it. seek your analysts that have their favourites. We might revisit this theme in the question of the day in just a moment. And sorry, Ben, just to round out before I forget, I will have a new trade today at 11:45. So for anyone who's interested make sure you tune in for that.

 

Ben O'Leary  05:12

Very nice thanks Chris. And a little spoiler there of what we'll get to in just a moment. Henry, what are you writing about today in a Henry's Take?

 

Henry Jennings  05:19

Just in my stuff today just the usual Monday stuff talking about the US fear and greed also just an update on that line town deal with Tesla and we have seen our RF1 which is regal they are merging with VGI - VGI Partners so that's affected today that house deposit bars get going pretty well. Not much for me today on I am afraid. 

 

Ben O'Leary  05:39

Very nice. Thanks, Henry. So always worth checking out there. Tom, back to you for some ideas today?

 

Tom Wegner  05:44

Thank you, Ben. Yes, some quick ideas. I was on OS B's this morning with buy hold and sell so you can see the ideas section for my talking point there but just to give a quick wrap up Wally was my buyer. Wesfarmers was my hold which coincidentally was the same as Chris on Friday I guess you could say Great minds think alike and Ansel a and was myself... 

 

Chris Conway  06:07

Just a very quick follow up there Tom I hold Wally as an open position in the trading ideas sessions there currently and it is doing quite well. So as you say great minds do indeed think alike. 

 

Ben O'Leary  06:15

Good stuff guy's good to say we're on the same page wherever they are. And our question that day to finish off today is What is your favourite research house?

 

Tom Wegner  06:22

The one I pay most attention to is Goldman and I feel that most people pay or give them afford then a lot of wait for when they make calls on the market and that's why I choose to follow them the most.

 

Ben O'Leary  06:34

Favourite feels a little bit of a strange way to phrase it. 

 

Tom Wegner  06:37

Yeah.

 

Ben O'Leary  06:38

Chris, I'll come back to you last because I know you've got a bit of juice on this Henry?

 

Henry Jennings  06:41

Well, my favourite obviously is Marcus today clearly but apart from that I do read the Macquarie stuff or odd stuff as well. I have a number of favourite commentators out there that I tend to listen to too and also some of the guys on Cosby's horse Tom and Chris especially but I do tend to ignore the price targets because they tend to be absolute rubbish most of time. But I do like the looking at the catalysts and the changes in terms of what their businesses are up to because they do do a lot of good work on those sorts of things rather than just on the DCF valuation or some sort of other valuation technique deriving a price target which they tend to move around quite substantially sometimes depending on what the share price is doing. So yes, but Goldman's is quite good, but I don't get to see that very often. Tom doesn't pass it on to me...

 

TEAM  07:25

Laughter

 

Ben O'Leary  07:26

Some good points. Thank you, Henry. I'll backup my car as well get a bit patriotic and back in there, the big ice racer shafts and Chris I'll leave it to you to take the dive in.

 

Chris Conway  07:35

No Ben, you pretty much just steal my thunder. Macquarie is a research that I like reading the most. I think they have a fantastic insights perhaps we are biassed because they are an Australian research house as opposed to a Credit Suisse or a JP Morgan or someone like that. Also, like Morgan Stanley has an institution generally again don't get to see their research all that often but like the way they operate, you know there was someone out last week talking about hurricanes, which is not really the way I like to shape things. Morgan Stanley seems to be a little bit more considered with thoughts about the market. 

 

Ben O'Leary  08:02

Very nice. Thanks, Chris. We will leave it there, see you tomorrow. Thanks, guys. Bye